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[julesdingle]

I posted this in the general forum in response to

Tensen
Lost Junkie



Posted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:01 am Post subject: Interesting Question about Nathan and the plane crash

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I belve the plane crash was a set up, as many others do as well. However, after re-watching "The Other 48 Days" i noticed that Nathan was was killed by Goodwin. My point here is if the plane crash was a set up and the people who survived were mean't to be on the island, why would Nathan be killed off by Goodwin? I know his reasoning behind it was b/c Nathan was a bad person. but if he was then y was he put on the island to begin with?



Its a good question but easly answered in that the 'others' may not be connected to the powers that brought about the crash. But it got me thinking and i have set out to sort out the different possibilties. One of the things that gets in the way of a super 'string' unifing theory is the number of dead bodies. A pure setup featuring a staged crash requires an awful lot of dead extras [ is killing clones murder? ]. Is life really that cheap to the powers behind everthing?

death and accidents is as a key issue as smokey is.

the writers said that the plane did not just accidently crash on the island. Logic would determine that the sequence of events that neatly brought the three bits of plane onto a little island surrounded by hundreds of thousands of square miles of water would be similar to hitting a target blindfolded, whilst spinning in the back of a speeding car a mile away from it.

so it is either
pilot planned to bring it to the island but ran into some landing problems;- dead bodies a consiquence but as it happened some special people 'happened' to survive.

an outside agent, either based on the island or not, conspired to bring the plane down close to the island. The mechanincs of this could be either sabatage of flight systems or a big magnet or an em pulse weapon.

a sub theory of this is either the intent was to kill all onboard or bring it down [casualties being collateral damge] and the actions of desmond influensing this in some way.

no actual crash; the wreakage was placed in position and the losties woke up, as for the tailies, the tail and survivors were simply dropped from a sky lift chopper and the water woke them up.
the sub theory here is that the others are unconnected to the crash setup or they are an intrinsic part but have the permission to kill if they are compromised.

key clues;

the pilot wore military wings, s1ep1, kate, daughter of an airforce man, looked long and hard at this clue. She would know it was out of place, it could be a setup for her, i.e. a double bluff, it could be proof the pilot was signifcant.

the pilot appeared to be eaten by a monster. BUT there is no full proof as the body was not checked and remained in a tree. It is also plausable that the 'pilot' was already on the island and dumped the real pilot and took his place knowing survivors were going to come and check. The monster could have been some sound effects, a hoist, and a winch to bring the rest of the front end crashing down. The man in the tree could have been the 'real' pilot. Or it could all be even more confusing.

people survived an aircrash which they would not if the plane broke up 6miles up. The plane did not fall apart in a logical aircrash way. [this could all be simply dramatic license]

From this, it can be drawn that;-

the pilot may have been a conspiritor but not aware he was dispensable.

other presumed conspirators; i.e. libby, cindy, ?, would not be aware they were dispensable.

'others' may not be aware of their true role and may also be dispensable.

Is it possible to conclude anything more precise? Well not without more evidence. It is however possible to place the 'crash' into some kind of context.

As part of the larger scheme of things;-
Apart from smokey the most bizarre event is eko finding his brother. A light plane with a thousand mile range ends up 12,000 miles away. The passengers do not bother to change out of their priest outfits suggesting they only landed once. i.e. they crashed. One can conclude the plane was brought down close to Nigeria and then shipped to the opposite side of the world. Yet fate is presumed to be the power at work. If the powers that be are interested in anything it is people response to fate or faith.

therefore if the plane really crashed in some contrived manner [put your favorite in here] then part of the scheme of things was to allow fate or fortune to determine who would live and who would die. Something god is happy to do every day, so perhaps the powers behind the island are trying to either play at god or test to see how much influence the supreme being has on a group of test subjects.

You may strongly disagree with the last speculation but personally i find it difficult to find value in lengths the powers that be [im not going to call them dharma/hanso/widmore inc/ the US and w, as they are likely to be fakes in a plot with more red herrings than a danish trawler] go to into stimulating the faith in fate amongst the losties.

I,m really up for solving as much as possibly in a logical and methodic manner without inventing fillers to fit a theory. I want to sleep at night, do things i see my neighbours do and generally escape this lost purgetory.

jules
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i dreamt i was a butterfly but perhaps i am a butterfly dreaming i am jules

[doctor hanso]

the problem with Nathan, is that i think he was genuinely wack-a-doo. There was something not right about him and spooky, which of course was the writers trying to mislead us into thinking he was an Other, but character is still character. Its entirely possible that Goodwin was

a)keeping Nathan from being tortured and questioned to preserve his disguise
b)actually doing away with a "bad" person... someone Jeffrey Dhamer, Charles Manson, or George Bush-like and a threat to the Losties
c)following an order from "Him"


that said

I do think most of the characters were put on the plane. I dont think the crash was staged though. The Hanso Foundation worked in the area of Mathematical Forecasting, which is basically a really pretty word for predicting and affecting future events. Its sorta like a very precise and pointed butterfly effect... sorta... maybe if you bottled it, i dunno...

Th point is, through Mathematical forecasting, which is exactly what we see occuring in the flashbacks, certain events take place that push each of these characters to eventually hop on flight 815. Events pretty much all from outside forces, like being hit by a gold car or arranging to have someones handsome bald ex come in and ruin your marriage (funny how Lee seemed to have a habit of that, hmm? assuming he was going to America for Sarah that is) Almost everybody has someone in their past, who might want them to "disappear". Like Hugo, whos money is now up for grabs, or Jin who would now be considered an unfit husband being live sperm-less (funny huh? Son of a fisherman who shoots dead fishies ) Or even the children of a famous surgeon, recently supposedly deseased after drinking himself to death. If his death were staged, it certainly wouldnt do to have his kids floating around now would it? Or Locke, certainly a thorn in mysterious Anthony Coopers side, not to mention the conman who may be out to kill him... might as well put him on the plane too. How about an Iraqi exRepublican guard soldier, recently doing undercover work for the FBI... might do well for the CIA to make him evaporate rather than running around L.A. all willy nilly

i think there was a "plan" for flight 815, but it wasnt a trip to the Island. Funny thing is, by not mathematically predicting Desmond not pressing the button, the plane never made it to wherever it was going (most likely doom, but who knows)

mostly because i think not pressing the button moves the Island. Technically Desmond caught the plane, he saved their lives. It was an amazing coincidence (science vs fate again)

*of course though i do have an alternate theory, if in fact Kelvin was told to lead Dez away from the button, but i like this one better
yeah
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[just another other]

[julesdingle]

I do love the bouncing around of ideas, so much more stimulating than getting frustrated all by your self.

Dr Hanso; curious stuff you mention about maths and chaos theory and it neatly links to my last line about playing god. In a seperate lifetime [lost thankfully isnt my life] i was doing some research about science versus religion and inparticular it was Kepler, maths expert who wrestled with his devout christian background. He reconciled it with the idea that maths was not just a language but the very language of creation and indeed god. Lots have people have tried to find significance in the lost numbers. Many have confused them with Fibonacci numbers which eventually develop into the golden ratio as well as the prime number sequence.

Chaos theory unfortunatly has no 'magic numbers' but just say they were discovered and they turned out to be ............ Understand that and you could really put a butterfly in the right place in the himalayers at the right time and cause a destructive hurricane in florida. Understand chaos and you could change governments but via economies. How would you use such power to get all the right people on a plane and get it 'crashed' where you like?

I love the idea but i side with JAO concerning logic. Incedently i think a super twist of the others just being victems is good narrative. I dont for one moment beleive that the key players are revealed this early in the show. Chaos theory is predicting the unpredictable! [im sure we i.e the CC of virtual losties are writing this show's plot but it aint going to be easy for them to choose the best bits I want to see a chaos theory device in the last episode, what do you think it will look like? Perhaps it will be a scabble bag with all the letters in it very 42 is the meaning of life!]
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i dreamt i was a butterfly but perhaps i am a butterfly dreaming i am jules